‘The new norm’: Austin coping with influx of multifamily properties

Austin’s multifamily market is dealing with an oversupply of available units
— a “too much of a good thing” scenario. National and local apartment data collector ALN Apartment Data indicated that this trend is likely to persist through at least 2024. Its data ranks Austin eighth in the country for cities with the most new units under construction. As of September, it recorded 63,882 units under preconstruction, 41,071 units under construction and 10,124 units under lease-up or being filled. Add to that another 17,364 units under construction/lease-up, and Austin’s apartment cup runneth over.

“The Austin multifamily sector is currently grappling with an oversupply of units, largely driven by significant new construction in recent years,” said Cheryl Higley, managing director of debt & equity for Northmarq’s Austin office, which offers comprehensive services in debt, equity, investment sales and loan servicing. “This oversupply has led to vacancy rates reaching a 20 year high. However, there are indications that the market will gradually balance out in the long run.”

One key factor influencing this balance is the projected growth in the population of young adults aged 20-34 in Austin. With a forecasted increase of 1.8 percent in 2024, Austin leads major U.S. markets in the growth rate of this demographic. “Given that this age group is more inclined towards renting rather than homeownership, the continued influx of young adults into the city, in addition to the expected drop-off in new units, suggests a more balanced multifamily market in the long run,” Higley noted. A seasoned professional with more than 22 years of experience in multifamily asset financing, Higley emphasized the importance of location in driving investment decisions amidst the current market scenario. “A couple years ago, multifamily properties in Austin were trading at similar cap rates, regardless of quality and location,” she said. “We currently have a multifamily listing in North Austin that would have traded at a 3 cap a couple of years ago, but now it’s approaching a 7 cap. This significant shift in cap rates underscores the impact of market dynamics on investment strategies.”

Multifamily owners are strategizing in response to market conditions, with some focusing on new acquisitions while others reinvest in existing properties. Age of the asset plays a significant role in decision-making, with buyers showing interest in older properties in strategic locations. “Owners are taking a more strategic view as their loans are maturing, evaluating between a refinance or sell scenario. We are seeing more owners adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach until market conditions become more favorable,” observed Higley, who, along with a team of Northmarq professionals, delivers tailored solutions to clients’ needs, attracting diverse capital sources while providing personalized services for buying and selling
multifamily properties.
Regarding the economic outlook, Higley remains cautious. “We need to be prepared for a higher-for-even-longer reality and a dim path for interest rate markets in the near future,” she said. “It is unlikely that interest rates will return to the historically low levels experienced over the past decade, but the market will eventually accept the new norm and pick up transactional activity.” While the Austin multifamily market currently faces challenges due to oversupply and shifting dynamics, there are signs of resilience and opportunities for growth. With a strategic approach to investment and a focus on emerging market trends, stakeholders can position themselves for success in the long term.

Q1 2024 US CRE Industry Conditions and Sentiment Survey

Altus Group conducted a survey across the US to provide insights into the market sentiment, conditions, metrics, and issues affecting the commercial real estate (CRE) industry.

The survey captured the individual practitioner’s perspective, representing various functions and across the capital stack.

See key highlights and download the results: United States Survey Results

Hart Commercial closes 39,975-square-foot lease renewal in Corsicana

Hart Commercial has arranged a 10-year renewal of Regional Employee Assistance Program’s 39,975 square feet at 400 Hospital Drive in Corsicana, Texas. 

Hart Commercial’s Allison Johnston Frizzo and Tanya Hart Little represented the building owner, Healthcare Realty Services, LLC.

NAI Geis Realty Group, Inc.’s Deidre Hardister represented the tenant.

More office tenants making the big move from renters to owners

Tenants are making plenty of big moves in today’s challenging office market. Many are moving out of older buildings and leasing smaller spaces in newer buildings, spending more per square foot but less overall for higher-end accommodations. Others are seeking out space in less expensive suburban areas as they embrace hybrid work schedules and no longer need to worry about their employees idling in traffic five days a week.

And still others? They are making the move from tenants to owners, purchasing office space instead of leasing it as the price of office properties continues to drop.

Jll reported that in the first quarter of 2014, office users accounted for 17% of U.S. office acquisitions. That might not seem like much, but in the fourth quarter of 2021, users only accounted for 4% of U.S. office acquisitions. That figure was only at 9% as recently as the second quarter of 2023, according to JLL researchers Jacob Rowden and Elena Lanning.

Since the beginning of 2023, corporate users have purchased $4.5 billion in office assets. Higher education and state and local governments have acquired $1.9 billion and $1.5 billion.

Some big names are making the move from leasing to owning, too. JLL reported that Costar Group, Prada, Kaiser Permanente, FanDuel, Hyundai, Amazon, Fortinet and Intuitive Sugical have all acquired offices priced above $100 million for occupancy since the beginning of 2023.

SVN|J. Beard Real Estate closes sale of office building in Spring

SVN | J. Beard Real Estate – Greater Houston has recently completed the sale of a free-standing Class-A office building in Spring, Texas, at 21025 Spring Brook Plaza Dr. 

The 5,000-square-foot building is situated near the intersection of major thoroughfares FM 2920 & Kuykendahl Road.

Advisor Linda Crumley of SVN | J. Beard Real Estate – Greater Houston represented the seller, Charles Dixon of Dixon Family Real Estate Ltd. The buyer, a private investor group, was represented by Tom Condon of Colliers International Houston, Inc.

Avoiding the day-two downfall: Five ways to set up a project for success

There are a tremendous number of complexities to erecting the buildings that make up our skylines. Whether a property is a new build or a redevelopment, the team moving development forward—owners, project managers, general contractors and subcontractors—must all collaborate to ensure smooth delivery and activation of the space without delay.

While day-one tasks and challenges such as site selection, construction and delivery are crucial to the success of a project, the question of how a completed space will function in practice is often overlooked during the design and construction phase – to disastrous results.

These “day-two” issues, or problems that arise after construction has completed and building operations have commenced, are not exclusive to any one sector. Whether a building is a healthcare facility, a hotel or a multifamily property, securing stable occupancy and creating a functional space for the end user is essential to driving profitability and achieving investment goals.

Unfortunately, errors during design and construction that are not contemplative of operational functions can impede these stabilization efforts, requiring costly and time-consuming changes that, until sorted, can significantly impact revenue, daily operations and customer experience.

As day-two pitfalls can affect any asset class, developers and project managers must address potential operational challenges early in the planning and construction phases to mitigate potential issues. Here are five steps for establishing an early foundation for a successful day-two.

Construction and operations planning should be integrated from the beginning of construction. Combining day-one and day-two plans into one master roadmap will ensure that the project’s goals are aligned, and that any decisions made will support the building’s functional operations. Integrating these two strategies requires bringing consultants, including architects, engineers, construction managers, property managers and multi-disciplinary end user groups, together as early as possible.

To begin with, leaders for overall day-one and day-two work should be identified, and those people must align day-one and day-two schedules to increase accountability and transparency and create a cohesive budget that allows for the flexibility needed to address operational needs during the construction phase.

One way to create a unified schedule is pull planning. Rather than starting with the first task and working up toward the end goal, a pull planning strategy works in reverse. The project team will identify the opening date and the final task that needs to be done before the doors can open, then work backward to create a task list. Pull planning reveals overlaps in the schedule, helping to ensure each milestone is completed by the opening date.

The day-two goals should also be visible and transparent up front. For example, a healthcare facility may have the goal of 72% occupancy six months after opening, or three exam room visits per hour after four months. Knowing this information upfront and building a process with milestones and check-ins allows the team to more easily adjust elements to keep on schedule and ensure these goals are met. Methodology for how the information is going to be acquired and analyzed should be agreed to and implemented.

Establish an Owner Change Committee

An owner change committee is a group of key project stakeholders that can communicate and discuss necessary changes throughout the duration of a project. No matter the project, it’s inevitable that changes are going to happen, so it is imperative that there is an established process to deal with them as they arise.

An owner change committee can vet prospective modifications based on the necessity of the alteration and how it will impact the project, then provide a framework to effectively implement changes with minimal impact to the overall timeline and budget. In a healthcare property, an owner change committee is a multidisciplinary team, one that is involved beginning in the schematic design process to help provide direction from day one. The same team should remain involved from construction to activation.

The change committee can include everyone from development and construction stakeholders to the doctors that will work in the physical space, who can speak to operational efficiency. Additionally, everyone on the change committee should have visibility into both the upfront and long-term operational costs, which will help to avoid situations in which decisions are made based on “first” cost estimates, without building longer-term operational expenses into the timeline and project structure.

Create Milestone Check-Ins

While establishing a proper plan and a change committee is important, the process must continue to evolve alongside the project. Creating a schedule that includes regular check-ins with project stakeholders and end-users alike helps ensure that both construction and operational goals remain aligned as the project progresses, and that any potential challenges are dealt with as soon as possible.

The design and construction project team rarely has deep insight into how the end users are going to run the building. If set up properly, these meetings can validate design, confirm operational models and jumpstart the creation of building activation and stable occupancy models. As it can be especially costly and time consuming to address updates and changes after the end-user has moved in, scheduling milestone meetings from the jump will allow stakeholders and owners to assess issues and reach targeted income-generation earlier.

Working Around Day-Two Updates

In an ideal world, once the end-users move into a building, the job of a project team would be done. Unfortunately, we live in the real world, and while regular check-ins with end users and the owner change committee can help to mitigate day-two problems, there are often situations in which a building needs to be operational before it’s finished. In these instances, it’s essential that the property can still generate income while these final kinks are worked out.

On a multifamily property, for example, this could mean opening the doors before common areas are complete, which will let ownership begin leasing efforts while completing construction of ancillary spaces. It is essential to anticipate potential day-two disruptions and build those into the schedule, budget and project roadmap from the beginning to ensure building safety and the customer experience are not compromised.

Keep End User Experience Top of Mind

The biggest threat of a day-two challenge is that it hampers the overall experience of the property, which could derail leasing efforts in a multifamily property, hinder productivity and patient health in a medical setting, and delay stabilization across all property types.

While the building may still have a punch list on opening day, the feel and experience of the property should be true to the tenant’s brand. To ensure a cohesive experience on opening day, prioritize the essential elements of the property that will create a familiar branded environment for guests, patients, users or doctors and staff, whether that is a welcoming lobby and amenities in a hotel, completed and operational units in a multifamily property, or a clean and well-equipped medical facility.

Day-two challenges can dramatically impact a development project. By taking a few proactive steps, engaging the right team members and understanding what aspects of the project to prioritize, project owners can reduce or eliminate day-two problems and achieve stabilization earlier.

Eric Hoffman is Vice President & Healthcare Sector Lead at Chicago’s Project Management Advisors.